The Behavior Pattern of Commercial Enterprises in Poland During Periods of Normal Volatility and Extraordinary Instability of the Business Environment

Abstract

Purpose | The purpose of the study was to identify and compare the behavior pattern of commercial enterprises, reflected through qualitative indicators, during the period of normal volatility and the period of extraordinary instability of the business environment. It was assumed the behavior pattern is created by the inertia effect based on routines and the prediction effect based on expectations. Research method | The study used qualitative indicators (diagnoses and forecasts) from GUS business tendency surveys in the Polish trade sector. The econometric study (ARDL models and multiplier analysis) was conducted for two subperiods: the pe riod of normal volatility (01.2000–02.2020) and the period of extraordinary instability (03.2020–05.2025). Results | The inertia effect played a key role in shaping the diagnoses. Combined with the prediction effect, it created a stable behavior pattern of commercial enterprises only in the period of normal volatility. This regularity was noted for qualitative indicators of financial situation and sales. No behavior pattern was identified in the period of extraordinary instability. Originality / value / implications / recommendations | The study proved that the behavior pattern and the response of enterprises to extraordinary instability differ depending on their location in the producer–consumer supply chain.