Assessment of the Role of Gold in the Foreign Exchange Reserves of Selected Central Banks from January 2002 to October 2025

Abstract

Purpose | The study aims to assess the long-term significance of gold within the foreign exchange reserves of selected central banks over the examined period. It examines whether the increase in gold reserves constitutes a statistically significant trend and dis¬cusses and provides an interpretation of the process in the context of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments identified in the literature. Research method | The research employs quantitative and comparative methods, including an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model based on annual and monthly data on gold prices and central bank reserves. The analysis is complemented by descriptive statistics and selected elements of market analysis. Results | The analysis reveals a statistically meaningful long-term growth in annual net changes in global gold reserves, estimated at an average of roughly 48 tons per year (β = 47.82 in the baseline OLS model). This upward trend may be interpreted as reflect¬ing a structural shift in central bank reserve management, consistent with increased geopolitical uncertainty and reserve diversification motives. Originality / value / implications / recommendations | The study highlights the growing strategic role of gold as a stabilising and risk-mitigating component of central bank portfolios. It provides a long-term econometric assessment of trend dynamics, discuss¬es potential macroeconomic and geopolitical factors in an interpretative framework, and incorporates gold-price dynamics as a measurable market proxy. Due to data availability, the econometric part focuses on gold-price dynamics as a measurable market proxy, while other determinants are discussed on the basis of the literature.