The Evolution and Determinants of the Consumer Credit Market in Poland between 2012 and 2025: An Analysis of Product Segmentation and the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors Size

Abstract

Purpose | The aim of this article is to analyse developments in the consumer credit market in Poland between 2012 and 2025, taking into account product segmentation and the impact of selected macroeconomic factors, in particular interest rates, inflation and the unemployment rate. An attempt has also been made to forecast market developments for the period 2026–2027. Research method | The analysis was carried out using trend models in time series and multiple regression estimated using the least squares method in STATISTICA 13.3. Trend models enabled the identification of long-term trends and the forecasting of consumer credit values, whilst multiple regression allowed the assessment of the impact of the reference rate, inflation and unemployment. The significance of the models was verified using the F-Snedecor and Student’s t-tests, the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Durbin–Watson and Shapiro–Wilk diagnostic tests. Results | The results indicate steady growth in the consumer credit market over the period analysed, with cash loans playing a dominant role. Regression analysis revealed a statistically significant negative impact of the unemployment rate, whilst the impact of inflation and interest rates was not statistically significant. Forecasts point to further moderate growth in the market between 2026 and 2027. Originality / value / implications / recommendations | The article combines segment- based market analysis with trend modelling and multiple regression, enabling a comprehensive assessment of developments in the consumer credit market in Poland and the identification of implications for banks’ lending policies and risk management.