Horizon Scanning of Green Logistics Futures in Central and Eastern Europe: An Economic Perspective

Abstract

Purpose | The paper aims to identify key megatrends and economic uncertainties shaping the future development of green logistics in Central and Eastern Europe. It seeks to examine how regulatory, financial, and geopolitical conditions may influence alternative pathways of green logistics transformation in the region. Research method | The study applies a foresight-based research design that combines horizon scanning and scenario analysis. Horizon scanning identifies long-term trends and critical uncertainties affecting green logistics. At the same time, scenario analysis constructs alternative future development paths under different configurations of financing availability, regulatory and geopolitical stability. Results | Green logistics development in Central and Eastern Europe is primarily shaped by economic factors, including access to financing, cost structures, and investment risk, as well as the gradual emergence of circular economy practices within logistics systems. Regulation sets the direction, but funding and institutional uncertainty shape unstable, path-dependent processes of transformation. Originality / value / implications / recommendations | The paper contributes to the literature by framing green logistics as an economically conditioned transformation process rather than a uniform sustainability pathway. The study provides foresight-based insights for policy and investment, emphasising regulatory predictability and financial support for green logistics in Central and Eastern Europe.