Resilience of Polish Exports to Non-Economic External Shocks

Abstract

Goal – the paper aims to assess the resilience of Polish exports to disruptions caused by external factors of a non-economic nature, using the example of the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Research methodology – the author of the study uses a literature review and analysis based on official statistics. The three dimensions of export resilience were operationalized and assessed, i.e. resistance, responsiveness and adaptation. Short- and medium-term results were evaluated. Score/results – Polish exports are not completely resilient to non-economic external shocks, as there has been a short-term deterioration in performance due to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, but taking all dimensions of resilience together and the medium-term time horizon, the resilience of Polish exports to this type of disruptions has been strongly confirmed. Originality/value – the study responds to the need to assess the economic security of economies participating in the international division of labor in connection with the emergence of non-economic external shocks negatively affecting international cooperation. The study makes an important contribution to the recognition of the resilience of Polish exports, its various dimensions and over a longer time horizon. To date, such research has not been conducted, and the issue of trade resilience, although very important for continuing to reap the benefits of international trade, is not sufficiently explained.