The Topological Structure of the Global Foreign Exchange Market During Crises – Comparative Network Analysis

Abstract

Purpose – The aim of this article was to assess the changes in the topological structure of the currency market caused by two crises: the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2022. A network of major world currencies was analysed over three six-month sub-periods: the pandemic period 1.02–31.07.2020, the war period 1.02–31.07.2022 and the reference period 1.02–31.07.2021. Research method – We have used the dynamic time warping (DTW) method for comparing time series. DTW distances between pairs of individual currencies were calculated, and, based on them, minimum spanning trees (MST) were constructed, whose topological characteristics were analysed. Results – It turned out that the topological structure of the foreign exchange market varies in the sub-periods studied, and the analysed crises affected the currency network. In addition, the networks generated by the MST depend on the choice of base currency used to measure the value of all other currencies. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The significance of the results obtained lies in providing a description of the topological structure of the market during the observed crises. The detected hierarchical structures can be useful in theoretical descriptions of currencies and in the search for economic factors affecting specific groups of countries.