A Difficult Neighbourhood with Hybrid War in the Background: An Analysis of Relations between Poland and Belarus

Abstract

Belarus has been dependent on the Russian Federation for many reasons for years. The possibilities for shaping its foreign policy are also very limited. Nevertheless, until recently, mutual relations with Poland still functioned, despite being complicated and not without difficult periods. However, the events related to the situation in Belarus after the rigged presidential elections in 2020, the enormity of the repression of representatives of the Belarusian opposition, parts of the media and ordinary citizens, the involvement of Belarus on the Russian side in its aggression against Ukraine, the hybrid war launched in mid-2021 consisting of the instrumental use of migrants for political purposes, and the subsequent packages of sanctions imposed by the European Union in response to these illegal and shameful actions raise legitimate questions about the future of mutual relations between Warsaw and Minsk. For this reason, it seems important to analyse the relations between Belarus, ruled continuously since 1997 by Lukashenko, and Poland.